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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 6-C.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 18-M.Slater, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, RECOVERED by NE-43-N.Ebner at DAL 12.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model