4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 45

New England Patriots 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 7-J.Bailey punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model