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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model