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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 15

New England Patriots 13 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(:05) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP