Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 9 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 19-A.Cooper to DAL 45 for 20 yards (27-J.Jackson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep middle to 19-A.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.23 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 75, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.71 EP