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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 2-B.Maher 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model