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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 24

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 2-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 9-Folk 1,101 career pts, 49th all-time.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.83 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model