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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 63

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NE 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP