Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 58

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

(8:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to DAL 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.20 EP
75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 58, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model