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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 30

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.54 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -0.17 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model