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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 9

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 2-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.89 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 9, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model