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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 28

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 2-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model