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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 2-B.Maher 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP