Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray. New Orleans challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood. 28-R.Gaulden MUFFS catch, touched at CAR 27, RECOVERED by NO-48-J.Gray at CAR 27. 48-J.Gray to CAR 27 for no gain (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model