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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 24 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(9:28) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 12-D.Moore for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-24-V.Bell, Defensive Holding, declined. Pass 2, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model