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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to NO 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 41-A.Kamara to NO 23 for -2 yards (53-B.Burns).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model