Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 54

New Orleans Saints 31 – Carolina Panthers 24

(14:19) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.91 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model