Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 15 – New Orleans Saints 17

(14:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 33 yards to NO 38, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-J.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 71, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model