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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 17 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to CAR 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-D.Moore to CAR 32 for no gain (53-A.Klein).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model