4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 23

Carolina Panthers 6 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(8:13) 4-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model