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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 23

New Orleans Saints 14 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 3-W.Lutz 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.44 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model