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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to PIT 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 20-C.Sutton.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +1.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP