4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PIT 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 20-C.Sutton to PIT 12 for 8 yards (29-S.Redwine).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.01 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model