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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. PENALTY on CLE-47-C.Hughlett, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.07 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model