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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 71

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to PIT 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (29-S.Redwine). PIT-18-D.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model