4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 64

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to NYJ 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 25 for 16 yards (30-T.Apke; 45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.08 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model