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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 94

New York Jets 34 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NYJ 49, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-T.Quinn to NYJ 49 for no gain (37-M.Canady).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model