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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 61

Washington Commanders 11 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYJ 3, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-39-J.Reaves.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model