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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 78

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to NYJ 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 35, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model