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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 10 at the 43
New York Jets 20 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(5:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.60 EP
-
28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.72 EP
- 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.24 EP
KICK
-0.80 EP
- 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
- 57% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.32 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
