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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 66

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to NYJ 18, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP