Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 62

New York Jets 13 – Washington Commanders 3

(2:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to WAS 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 25 for 9 yards (34-B.Poole).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model