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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 88

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to NYJ 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 45 for 15 yards (45-M.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.71 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model