4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 8

New Orleans Saints 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(:54) 3-W.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model