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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to NO 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara to NO 24 for no gain (29-R.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 27, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model