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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Williams at NO 45. 43-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.03 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model