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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:07) 64-W.Clapp and 60-P.Omameh reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle to TB 45 for 2 yards (50-V.Vea).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.02 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model