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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model