Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

(1:46) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 36, Center-49-Z.Wood. 22-T.Logan ran ob at TB 43 for 7 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model