Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 60

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

(12:07) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to NO 22, Center-97-Z.Triner. 41-A.Kamara to NO 49 for 27 yards (17-J.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.14 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model