4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:40) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 34 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-31-D.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.22 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP