Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 86

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

(6:18) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 59 yards to KC 27, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 42 for 15 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.70 EP
47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 86, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model