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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 64

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Punt formation) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to KC 15, Center-45-C.Mazza. 17-M.Hardman to KC 22 for 7 yards (35-T.Pope).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 64, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model