Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:50) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to LAC 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 20-D.King MUFFS catch, and recovers at LAC 18. 20-D.King to LAC 18 for no gain (23-A.Watts).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model