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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(5:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model