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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 36

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Shotgun) 5-R.Finley pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert to LV 18 for 18 yards (21-D.Swearinger).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model