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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +1.59 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.17 EP