4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(9:15) 8-D.Carlson 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +4.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.68 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.58 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.32 EP