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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to CIN 1 for 3 yards (97-G.Atkins; 36-S.Williams). CIN-96-C.Dunlap was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +4.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model