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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 41

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 10-K.Huber punts 26 yards to LV 15, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP